Joe Wilson's Silicon Valley Real Estate Blog

"Every industry in the South Bay is growing except for construction and retail," said Jon Haveman. "The East Bay is very much hurting, and it may continue to do so for a while."

Haveman gave his divergent outlooks at a downtown Oakland conference sponsored by Torrey Pines Bank.

One big reason for the differing paces of recovery is that the East Bay tumbled into a much deeper economic abyss, an analysis of state Employment Development Department figures shows.

Since payroll employment peaked in the East Bay in August 2007, it has lost about 105,000 jobs. In contrast, the South Bay's employment peak came in March 2008, and it has since lost about 38,000 jobs. The San Francisco-San Mateo-Marin region peaked in July 2008, and since then has shed 47,000 jobs.

The East Bay remains 10.2 percent below its peak employment levels, while the San Francisco area is down 5.5 percent and the South Bay is down 4.5 percent. California overall is down 6.7 percent.

"The South Bay will come through this like a champ and get back to the peak pretty quick," said Brad Kemp, an economist with Beacon Economics. "The San Francisco area is close behind. The East Bay has had almost no recovery whatsoever."

The South Bay's tech sector offers an array of products and services in high demand among consumers and companies alike. But Haveman noted that the East Bay "doesn't have that sector to drive a recovery."